Quote by Nate Silver:
“Nate Silver said he found it “a bit concerning” that there have now been significant polling misses “in the same direction” not only in 2016 and 2020 but also in the 2014 midterms (though not in 2018).”
https://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/277-75/66057-focus-nate-silver-to-fivethirtyeight-critics-fk-you-we-did-a-good-job
Nate Silver to FiveThirtyEight Critics: 'F**k You, We Did a Good Job'
By Matt Wilstein, The Daily Beast
05 November 20
...Silver also pointed out that the only state where Biden led in the final polling averages and lost at this point was Florida, with North Carolina likely to follow. And Silver said he found it “a bit concerning” that there have now been significant polling misses “in the same direction” not only in 2016 and 2020 but also in the 2014 midterms (though not in 2018).
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From TDMS Research:
https://tdmsresearch.com/2020/11/04/2020-presidential-election-table/
Dear Group-
The comparison between the exit polls and the vote count has been completed (see link below) for the Presidential election. It shows a comfortable Biden Electoral College win of 328 to 210. The vote count is, of course, a different story.
The article does explain why the exit polls conducted in a pandemic year is not so different from prior years.
As with the Senate races (to be published today) the most striking aspect of these tables is the wall of exit poll/vote count (EP/VC) discrepancies favoring the Republican Party candidates--many way beyond the Margin of Error for the races.
The last paragraph in the short article raises a point that I feel has been largely overlooked. How easy it would be to alter the outcome of elections. Each and every vote counting machine has its software updated prior to each election. One would need only to hack/alter the software at the source (only three companies provide voting machines) and the vendors or state functionaries will install it in every machine. No need for internet access.
On a speculative note, not in the article, after all these years of bad press about the "red shift" where the Democratic Party (or the more progressive candidate in a primary) appears over-represented, one would think that Edison Research would have come up with all sorts of rationale to weigh their polls to overcome this shift. If this is the case, the exit polls results in these elections may have greatly understated the actual discrepancies. If the vote counts are indeed corrupted (as we tend to think) is it possible that the "thumbs on the scale" are on the order of 10%-15% or even more in important races instead of a modest 3%-5%?
As usual I welcome comments and criticisms--they only help improve the work.
Yours,
Ted Soares
https://tdmsresearch.com/2020/11/04/2020-presidential-election-table/
2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TABLE
Exit Polls Versus Reported Vote Counts