Paul Blumenthal: "A dynamic known as the “Blue Shift” already has shown that ballots counted after an election day tend to favor Democratic candidates, as their voters are more likely to cast provisional ballots in-person or return their absentee ballots closer to the receipt deadline….Combine the existing “Blue Shift” with the pandemic-induced jump in absentee voting and it becomes clear that a great divergence could emerge between the Nov. 3 returns and the actual final tally when late-arriving absentee and provisional ballots are counted. Trump could easily go to bed with a lead in key states based on an incomplete tally on election night and wake up to see that lead eroding based on the totally normal counting of valid ballots ― a “red mirage,” as one political consultant called it in an interview with Axios.
...During the 2000 recount in Florida, Republican operatives contrived protests, including the infamous Brooks Brothers Riot, to pressure state election officials to stop counting ballots. Democrats have already said they will not cede protest activity to the GOP, as they did in 2000….But right-wing protests that have emerged in support of Trump during his term in office don’t look like the work of astroturfing staffers dressed in the attire of the White Anglo-Saxon Protestant elite. He has the backing of a broad network of heavily-armed militia groups, far-right street-fighting gangs, white supremacists and a pseudo-religious cult that believes Trump is a demigod operating in secret to prevent the apocalypse."
